Malen, Varela and Kamara: value for money in Serie A
Malen at Roma scores almost four fantasy points more than players in his own price bracket; Kolo Muani, who costs the same, scores two fewer. The fantasy football surprises before the matchday, with our thresholds stated and the numbers from our own price list.
The real surprises in fantasy football are not the players who score the most points, but those who score more than their price tag suggests. We kept only players with at least two appearances with a rating and 120 minutes played: 261 admitted out of the 643 on the list. The index this piece is built on is not the fantasy average divided by credits, but the gap between a player's fantasy average and the median of players in the same position and the same price bracket, calculated only where a bracket has at least four admitted players. And the list price is not the price paid at the auction: they are two different things. Our position letters are the Italian ones: P goalkeeper, D defender, C midfielder, A forward.
The widest gap belongs to Malen: at Roma, priced 33, a fantasy average of 11,50 against the 7,62 median of forwards from 21 credits up, that is +3,88. Behind him, two cheap names: Raimondo of Frosinone, 8 credits, 9,38 against 6,62 (+2,76), and Frattesi at Lazio, 6 credits, 8,88 against 6,25 (+2,63). Among mid-priced midfielders there is Franco Mastantuono at Fiorentina: 11 credits, 8,62, median 6,37, +2,25.
The heaviest disappointment is Kolo Muani: 27 credits at Juventus, a fantasy average of 5,50 against 7,62 for his bracket, -2,12; la Gazzetta dello Sport, among yesterday's rumours, had him losing his place to Woltemade in Spalletti's plans. Simeone at Torino is on 5,50 with a price of 16 and a median of 7,00 (-1,50), Gonçalo Ramos at Milan on 6,62 against 7,62 (-1,00), and Corriere dello Sport, again as a rumour, describes him left alone with his back to goal. McTominay, 27 credits and 5,75 against 7,37, has only two appearances with a rating: that number holds up poorly.
For the cheapest players the index changes and must be handled with care: the fantasy average divided by the price almost always rewards those who cost 1 or 2, because the denominator is tiny, and it does not say they are the best. The highest values belong to Sagrado of Venezia (1 credit, 7,00) and Abankwah of Udinese (1 credit, 6,50). Gustavo Varela of Monza, 2 credits and 9,38, also stands up to the fair comparison: +2,44 on the 6,94 median of his bracket. Yesterday he settled the 2-1 win over Sassuolo with a brace (ANSA).
In the positions where the medians are lower, a surprise weighs more. Among the 20 admitted goalkeepers, in the 6 to 10 credit bracket the median is 4,81 and Caprile of Cagliari is on 6,50 (+1,69); at the bottom David de Gea, 14 credits and 2,75 against 4,50 (-1,75). Among the 97 defenders, the median in the 1 to 5 bracket is 5,88: Kamara of Udinese is on 8,50 at 5 credits (+2,62), Hainaut of Venezia on 7,50 at 4 (+1,62). In the 6 to 10 bracket, median 6,00, Bisseck of Inter (10 credits, 8,00) and Tiago Gabriel of Lecce (8 credits, 7,88).
For the matchday about to start the reading is simple: the cheap players with a positive gap cost little and are returning more than others at their price. Two warnings, though. With so few rounds played these numbers move a great deal, and we do not weigh the difficulty of the opponents already faced: two identical fantasy averages can come from very different fixture lists.
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