Çalhanoğlu scores but doesn't start: Inter's puzzle

Hakan Çalhanoğlu, 32, from Türkiye, listed as C (midfielder in our Italian fantasy list) at Inter: he is worth 28 credits in our list, and none of the 233 midfielders we track costs more. He comes up today because he is the sixth name in our rotation by price. What the numbers say, though, is less comfortable than the price tag: in three rounds he has played 137 minutes, scored 2 goals and holds the highest fantasy average in his position, yet our estimated chance of him starting is 45% and he does not appear in Inter's projected line-up.

Last season in Serie A is the baseline: 22 appearances, 20 of them as a starter, 1,650 minutes, 9 goals and 4 assists. Four of those nine goals came from the penalty spot, with one penalty missed. He took 37 shots, 17 on target, delivered 41 key passes and completed 1,393 passes at 90.0% accuracy; add 34 tackles, 16 interceptions, 63 duels won out of 125 and 7 yellow cards. His API-Football rating, weighted by appearances, was 7.51.

Across those 1,650 Serie A minutes the totals come to 0.49 goals and 0.22 assists per 90 minutes, with 2.24 key passes, 2.02 shots and 75.98 passes in the same span: for a midfielder, that is the output of an extra playmaker. The comparison with this season cannot be made: 137 minutes fall below the 180-minute threshold we require for per-90 figures in the current campaign, so every row of our comparison table is left without a number. The only two comparable items point to continuity: rating up from 7.51 to 7.73 (+0.22, or +2.9%) and passing accuracy unchanged at 90.0%.

The FantaTB fantasy points, which we calculate ourselves and are not a newspaper's ratings, tell the other half: average rating 6.83, fantasy average 8.67 over 3 rated appearances, 2 goals and no assists, with a run of 9.5 on matchday one, 10.0 on matchday two and 6.5 on matchday three. That fantasy average puts him in the 99th percentile among the 159 midfielders who have the figure. His estimated 45% chance of starting, by contrast, leaves him in the 65th percentile out of 233: high for the position, low for a 28-credit player.

Around him, Inter sit second with 13 points from 5 rounds (4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats), 15 goals scored and 8 conceded, form WWWWD. They score 3.00 goals per game and concede 1.60, with a single clean sheet in five; they hold 63.0% possession and take 23.2 shots per game, 7.4 on target. We only have xG for the team, never for the individual player: Inter produce 2.55 xG per game and concede 1.07, across 4 of the 5 matches with a statistics block.

The fixture our calendar lists is the trip to the Stadio Olimpico against Roma, matchday 5, set for 19 September at 16:00 UTC. Waiting for them are the league leaders on the same 13 points and the same WWWWD form: 2.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets in 5 and 1.05 xG conceded per game. It is the least troubled defence among those the dossier puts side by side.

On availability we have nothing flagged: no injury, no suspension, no return to wait for. What remains is the selection question: over the last rounds he started once in three and came off the bench once in three, and he is not in Inter's projected line-up. Whoever has him owns a player who makes a difference when he plays, as two goals in 137 minutes show, but one to field by watching the team sheets to the last minute, not by the price paid at the auction.