Højlund or Thuram? Who to start on matchday 6

They are both forwards (A in the FantaTB player list, where P, D, C and A stand for goalkeeper, defender, midfielder and forward) with almost identical prices: Rasmus Højlund is worth 29 credits, Marcus Thuram 28. Managers who own both often have to pick one, and on matchday 6 both play at home: Napoli-Frosinone for the Dane, Inter-Parma for the Frenchman.

So far the balance tilts towards Inter. Thuram has 2 FantaTB goals and 2 assists in 4 rated appearances, with an average rating of 6.75 and a fanta-average of 8.75. Højlund has one more rated appearance, 5, but stops at 2 goals and no assists, with an average rating of 5.70 and a fanta-average of 6.90.

The Serie A per-90 figures, based on 230 minutes for Thuram and 363 for Højlund, confirm the gap. Thuram scores 0.78 goals per 90' against 0.50, shoots 4.70 times against 1.49 and hits the target 1.96 times against 0.99. He adds 0.78 assists and 2.35 key passes per 90', where Højlund is stuck at 0.00 and 0.25. Last season, over 1,913 minutes for Thuram and 2,761 for Højlund, tells the same story: 0.61 goals per 90' against 0.39 and 1.36 shots on target against 0.81. The Frenchman also leads in duels won: 7.43 against 2.23 this season.

On starts the two are level. For both, the trend of the last rounds is two starts out of three and a substitute appearance in the other, a 70% chance of starting according to our calculation, which is not a statement from the coach. In the predicted line-up Højlund is listed as a starter at 88%, Thuram at 79%. Neither has a reported injury.

The next fixture matters, but less than it seems. Napoli host Frosinone, 6th with 10 points and in good form (LWWDW): they concede 0.80 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet 2 times out of 5, although they allow 2.09 xG per game over 4 matches with statistics. Inter host Parma, 15th with 4 points and form LLDLW, who concede 1.40 goals per game, have not kept a single clean sheet in 5 rounds and allow 1.63 xG per game.

The answer is Thuram. He is ahead in every attacking category, also delivers assists and faces a defence that has never kept a clean sheet so far. In Højlund's favour there is a slightly better predicted line-up and a Frosinone side that allows plenty of chances. One thing would flip the choice: if in the days before the game Thuram ended up in a selection doubt or on the bench while Højlund stayed in the side, the Dane would become the safer pick.