Lautaro or Malen? Who to start in Roma-Inter

They are both forwards (A in the FantaTB list, where P, D, C and A stand for goalkeeper, defender, midfielder and forward) and they cost almost the same: Lautaro Martínez is worth 34 credits, Donyell Malen 33. Anyone who owns both has to pick one on Saturday, and matchday 5 even puts them in the same game: Roma-Inter at the Olimpico, between the two sides at the top of Serie A with 12 points.

The start of the season leans entirely one way. Malen has 6 FantaTB goals in 4 rated appearances, an average rating of 7.12 and a fantasy average of 11.50. Lautaro has 2 goals in 3 rated appearances, an average rating of 6.33 and a fantasy average of 8.00. Neither has a FantaTB assist yet.

Per 90, calculated on 255 Serie A minutes for Malen and 234 for Lautaro, the Dutchman scores 2.12 goals against 0.77, shoots 4.94 times against 4.23 and hits the target 3.18 times against 1.54. Last season's benchmark scales Malen down but does not reverse the picture: 0.85 goals per 90 over 1,478 minutes, against Lautaro's 0.70 over 2,178 minutes, and 1.89 shots on target against 1.61. Lautaro is more involved in build-up play (31.15 passes per 90 against 17.65, 1.54 key passes against 1.41), but this season he also collects more yellow cards: 0.77 per 90 against 0.35.

On starting chances the two are similar: 65 % for Lautaro, a starter in 2 of the last 3 matchdays; 70 % for Malen, who started twice and came off the bench once. Neither has a reported injury. The difference is in the predicted line-up: Malen is a starter at 88 %, while Lautaro currently does not appear in Inter's predicted eleven. These are trends based on recent matches, not choices announced by the coaches.

The next fixture is the same one, seen from two sides. Malen plays at home against second-placed Inter, form WWWW, who score 3.30 goals per game but concede 1.50, have kept a clean sheet 1 time in 4 and allow 0.87 xG per game. Lautaro travels to first-placed Roma, also WWWW, who concede 0.30 goals per game, have kept a clean sheet in 3 games out of 4 and allow 0.62 xG per game.

The answer is Malen. He has the better numbers this season, a safer place in the predicted line-up and a more beatable defence in front of him than the one waiting for Lautaro. The verdict would flip if Lautaro were confirmed in Inter's starting eleven and Malen went back to the bench, as already happened in one of the last three matchdays: at that point, pick whoever starts.