Malen, 6 goals in 4 games: Roma fly with him

The second name in our player of the day rotation is Donyell Malen, 27, Dutch, A (attacker, forward) for Roma, priced at 33 credits in the FantaTB list: the second most expensive player on it. The point the numbers make is clear: in the first four rounds he is not only scoring more, he is involved in everything more, from shooting to dribbling to duels. With a caveat that applies to the whole piece: his minutes this season are still just 255.

Malen split last season in two. In Serie A, with Roma, he played 18 matches, all as a starter, for 1,478 minutes: 14 goals and 2 assists, 49 shots with 31 on target, 8 key passes, 16 successful dribbles out of 43 attempted. From the spot, 3 penalties scored and 1 missed. His average API-Football rating was 7.24. In the same season he also played for Aston Villa: 21 appearances and 4 goals in the Premier League, 3 goals in the Europa League. Those numbers are context and stay out of every comparison, which here is strictly Serie A against Serie A.

The new season has started at full speed: 4 appearances as a starter, 255 minutes, 6 goals and no assists, no penalties. That is above the 180-minute threshold we use for per-90 comparisons, and against the 1,478 minutes of last season's Serie A the changes are big. Goals go from 0.85 to 2.12 per 90 minutes. Shots on target from 1.89 to 3.18 (+68.3%). Successful dribbles from 0.97 to 2.82 (+189.8%), with a success rate up from 37.2% to 61.5%. Key passes from 0.49 to 1.41. Duels won out of total from 32.9% to 58.3%. The only item going down is assists, from 0.12 to zero. Over four matches a single bad day is enough to shift these values a lot.

In fantasy football his start is the best in his role. FantaTB fantasy ratings give him an average rating of 7.12 and a fantasy average of 11.50, the highest among the 74 attackers who already have a rating. His sequence of FantaTB fantasy ratings is 17.5 in round 1, 12.0 in round 2, 6.5 in round 3 and 10.0 in round 4: just one blank, then bonuses again. Our estimated starting rate is 70%.

The context helps. Roma are top with 12 points from 4 rounds, four wins, 12 goals scored and 1 conceded, a clean sheet in 3 matches out of 4. They produce 2.78 xG per match (over 3 matches with statistics) and concede 0.62: that is the team's xG, not the player's, which does not exist in our data. Twelve days ago Maurizio Sarri, ahead of Roma-Atalanta, was already describing him as in a state of grace (Corriere dello Sport).

The next fixture is the toughest possible: round 5, Roma-Inter at the Olimpico, Saturday 19 September at 16:00 UTC. Inter are second with the same 12 points, also four wins out of four, with a clean sheet only 1 time in 4 and 0.87 xG conceded per match (over 3 matches with statistics).

On availability, our data report no injuries or suspensions, and in the predicted line-ups Malen is a starter at 88%, picked from the start in the last 3 out of 3. If you have him, you play him. Expecting him to keep this pace would be a gamble: 6 goals in 255 minutes are an exceptional start, not yet a trend. Against a defence that has so far conceded little in terms of xG, Saturday's match will tell us a lot.